Showing posts from December, 2017

My simple quantitative approach to spec stocks like Garibaldi

I came across an interesting video of Eric Sprott recently.  Eric is a legend in the mining sector and I respect his knowledge and work ethic.  Eric has also been one of the supporters of Garibaldi Resources (TSXV:GGI), a company that has received significant scrutiny on this blog, IKN, and the Angry Geologist.  So, you would think that I disagree with Eric Sprott on Garibaldi.  However, that is not the case.

In the video, Eric indicates that he is looking for 10 and 20 baggers.  We all love those, don't we?  Eric has had a lot of them in his lifetime and is much wealthier than most of the rest of us.  Let's be clear, however, that investing in these types of stocks is probably not a core investment strategy.  I'm sure that Eric has also invested in many such stocks and lost money.  He is in the fortunate position that it won't have much of an impact on his overall wealth or quality of life.  My guess is that some investors in stocks like Garibaldi and Novo Resources (…

Would you rather...

Receive one of the following:

$16,000 US dollars1,000 ounces of silver13 ounces of gold500 pounds of cobalt5,400 pounds of copper or: 1 Bitcoin? Whatever your fancy, the valuations are all currently about the same.
The pullback in Bitcoin I noted a week ago, which looked substantial at that time, now looks like a minor blip on the chart.  Exponential action!

Was Thursday's high on Bitcoin the top?  Probably not.  People don't seem to learn, so history repeats itself again and again with bubbles (lots of bubbles documented here).  Below is a chart for one of the first documented bubbles, tulip mania.  One thing I've learned from bubbles and market crashes is that the decline in price when a bubble pops is typically several times faster than the exponential rise up.  So, when the Bitcoin/cryptocurrency bubble pops, it is likely going to be mind blowing!  If 20% daily gains and losses are normal for Bitcoin, a sharp selloff is going to look like 40 or 50% in a day.  You see, ma…

Garabaldi doesn't add up

Thanks to the BC Securities Commission, Garabaldi Resources (TSXV:GGI) has disclosed the drill hole coordinate and composite grade intervals that should have been in the drill results release.  Let's do a quick recap.  The company started making a lot of noise about a massive nickel discovery on September 1.  Assays were finally released on November 20 (more than 11 weeks after Sep. 1) in a news release that looked like it was hastily written and incomplete.  It then took another 9 days for the company to issue the full disclosure required by the BCSC.

Why would Garibaldi not want to be forthcoming with this information?  Perhaps, because the facts don't live up to the hype.  The Angry Geologist analyzes the data here and highlights that the massive sulphide intercepts are really quite small and appear to be confined to a small zone.  Stuff like this makes the Angry Geologist angry and you won't like him when he's angry!

I'd also like to point out some simple math.…